BASED ON HISTORY, EITHER ANDREW LUCK OR ROBERT GRIFFIN III WILL FAIL

The first two picks of this years NFL draft are pretty much set in stone.

The Indianapolis Colts will choose quarterback Andrew Luck and the Washington Redskins will choose Robert Griffin III.

It's only the fourth time in the last 20 years a pair of quarterbacks will go one and two in the draft.

If history repeats itself, only one of these guys will have a decent NFL career.

Consider this ...

  • In 1993, Drew Bledsoe was taken number one by the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks used the number two pick on Rick Mirer. Bledsoe succeeded. Mirer tanked.
  • In 1998, it was the famous Peyton Manning - Ryan Leaf draft. Manning became one of the greatest quarterbacks in history. Leaf became known as one of the biggest busts in league history.
  • In 1999, Tim Couch was made the top overall pick by Cleveland. His career sputtered. But the number two pick that year was Donovan McNabb, who had a great career.

Will the trend continue? We'll know soon enough ... (Los Angeles Times)

The NFL Draft kicks off in New York City on Thursday, so the NFL store in Manhattan is celebrating the occasion by hanging giant posters of the most recent number one picks.

The oversized display has pictures of the first overall picks from 2005 through 2011 -- with the exception of JaMarcus Russell, who is regarded by some as the biggest NFL draft bust of all time.

Despite collecting $61 million from the Oakland Raiders, he flopped as a quarterback -- and is now being treated as if he never existed.

Source: ProFootballTalk.com

A great NFL Draft can change a team's fortune pretty quickly. But what happens to the draft picks that are total busts?

LostLetterman.com took a look at where the Top 50 busts in draft history ended up, based on ESPN's 2008 survey. Here's the Top 3:

3. Art Schlichter, Ohio State, QB (No. 4 overall, 1982)
After playing in just 13 games, Schlichter was in and out of prisons thanks to a gambling habit. Schlichter was sentenced to 10 years in prison in September of 2011 for his part in a ticket fraud scheme.

2. Lawrence Phillips, Nebraska, RB (No 6. overall, 1996)
After a shortened career due to character issues, Phillips was arrested and eventually sentenced to 31 years in prison for domestic violence and assault with his car in a bizarre incident in which he tried to run over kids after a pickup football game in Los Angeles in 2005.

1. Ryan Leaf, Washington State (No. 2 overall, 1998)
After throwing 36 interceptions in four NFL seasons, Leaf moved back to his native Montana and was arrested last month for stealing to feed a prescription medication addiction.